This first Test is excitingly poised, although there can now only be one winner. It’s something which often puzzles the uninitiated – how there can be a nail-biting draw in sport, but this could be one such match. Soccer now shares this possibility to some extent. In two-leg cup matches, teams not infrequently need only to draw to go through to the next round, and if the match is to be played on foreign soil, it can be a triumph just to hold on despite the partial, heckling support of a totally alien crowd, and a desperate opposition throwing the kitchen sink at you. Down in Cardiff, we can expect the kitchen sink treatment for sure, but the crowd will be almost completely partisan for England. My favourite moment of the fourth day’s play was to hear the punters sing with great gusto ‘God save your gracious Queen’, a pointed and funny reference to Australian republican aspirations. However for England the ‘Barmy Army’ may represent pressure as much as support. England’s performance has been largely unimpressive over the last few days, and the cheers may turn to boos.
But how important for the series it is that England survive the day unbeaten. Their record against Australia at Lords, where the next Test is to be played, is shaming – they haven’t won since 1934, and to go either one down or two down into the last three matches would suggest a bad series loss in the making.
So with eight wickets in hand, England must try their hardest to bat through a day of more than 90 overs – there’ll be time to make up for the play lost to rain yesterday afternoon – on a pitch which as widely forecast is beginning to crumble away. There were moments yesterday when the ball sent up little explosions of dust as it pitched. The height and direction of travel of a ball doing this can be very unpredictable. More worryingly, it’s not only balls which hit the bowlers’ footmarks which are deviating: it’s tending to bounce uncertainly off the main part of the pitch too. The spin bowlers will like it a lot, and the much-maligned Hauritz now has a wonderful opportunity to answer his critics. But Michael Clarke’s occasional left-arm spin may also be a threat. He has a record of embarrassing opponents, notably on slow-spinning pitches in India. His natural spin will take the ball back into the English lefthanders from those footmarks outside their off stump. The English batsmen should just be thankful that Shane Warne is watching from the stands. Were he to be in today’s Australian side, it would undoubtedly be game over.
Not that there won’t be a threat from the Australian quick bowlers as well. A decade or two ago, before the renaissance of late twentieth century spin bowling, it was often said that fast bowlers in this kind of situation could do everything a spin bowler could do, but just do it quicker. There’ve been two crucial things about the fortunes of this match, and one has been that the Australian quick bowlers have outperformed the English. They’ve swung and seamed the ball far more effectively. Was it luck of the draw with the environmental circumstances i.e. were the first day bowling conditions just better than later on? Or was it a variation in the actual cricket balls which made the difference?
Or are they just better?
We’re in danger of talking up the English fast bowling attack. In reality, two of the three on show here aren’t suited to the conditions – Broad and Flintoff. They’re tall men who bang the ball into the pitch, and both have limitations in getting the ball to swing when there’s not much assistance from overhead. The third, Anderson, who I heard one pundit describe as possibly the third best fast bowler in the world today, is a long way from that as far as I can see. He can be very effective, but he has too many days when the force deserts him. In this game both he and Broad have visibly been unable to attack the bowling crease with sustained energy. The same can’t be said of the tireless Flintoff, but even he understandably wilted under the Australian batting pressure. When Collingwood looks the most dangerous bowler, you know England are in deep doo-doo.
Which brings us to the kernel of the matter. Where the English batting was all profligacy, with so many batsmen getting a good start only for them to throw their wicket away, the Australians made the most of their opportunities. Four of them got hundreds: Ponting, Katich, North and Haddin, - the first time this has been done in a match between England and Australia - and all of them scored over 120. Clarke added 83 of his own. They gave few chances, and unlike the English they all played with resolve and orthodoxy. Can the English batsmen now redeem their reputations? They'll have to play out of apparent character to do so. Extravagant shots won't save the day, although negative defence may not be enough either. They'll have to be positive as well as watchful, and play straight. Last afternoon Bopara didn't and immediately paid the penalty
Will the weather come to England’s rescue? It doesn’t look likely: there are showers forecast, and I suppose there may be a delayed start after the overnight rain. I don’t expect England to survive beyond the afternoon session, although the dream start to this series would be a determined England fightback which saw Panesar and Anderson bat out the final five overs of the day. I shall now go to church and pray for that.
England 435 and 20 for 2 wickets: Australia 674 for 6 wickets declared
